Predicting Pandemics: Lessons from (and for) COVID-19

This is a live online discussion between Jonathan Fuller and Alex Broadbent, hosted by the Institute for the Future of Knowledge in partnership with the Library of the University of Johannesburg. Comments and discussion are hosted on this page, and you can watch the broadcast here:

We know considerably more about COVID-19 than anyone has previously known about a pandemic of a new disease. Yet we are uncertain about what to do. Even where it appears obvious that strategies have worked or failed, it will take some time to establish that the observed trends are fully or even partly explained by anything we did or didn’t do. And when we take a lesson from one place and try to apply it in another, we have to contend with the huge differences between different places in the world, especially age and wealth. This conversation explores these difficulties, in the hope of improving our response to the uncertainty that always accompanies pandemics, our ability to tell what works, our sensitivity to context, and thus our collective ability to arrive at considered decisions with clearly identified goals and a based on a comprehensive assessment of the relevant costs, benefits, risks, and other factors.

Further reading:

Professor Alex Broadbent (PhD) is Director of the Institute for the Future of Knowledge at the University of Johannesburg and Professor of Philosophy at the University of Johannesburg. He specialises in prediction, causal inference, and explanation, especially in epidemiology and medicine. He publishes in major journals in philosophy, epidemiology, medicine and law, and his books include the path-breaking Philosophy of Epidemiology (Palgrave 2013) and Philosophy of Medicine (Oxford University Press 2019).

Dr Jonathan Fuller (PhD, MD) is a philosopher working in philosophy of science, especially philosophy of medicine. He is an Assistant Professor in the Department of History and Philosophy of Science (HPS) at the University of Pittsburgh, and a Research Associate with the University of Johannesburg. He is also on the International Philosophy of Medicine Roundtable Scientific Committee. He was previously a postdoctoral research fellow in the Institute for the History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Toronto.