Lockdown will lead to 29 times more lives lost than the harm it seeks to prevent from Covid-19 in SA, say SA actuaries in @FinancialMail – and that’s a conservative estimate

‘EXCLUSIVE: Lockdown disaster dwarfs Covid-19, say SA actuaries’ https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/features/2020-05-05-lockdown-disaster-dwarfs-covid-19-say-sa-actuaries/

It’s becoming hard to keep up with this stuff – there seem to be more and more voices suggesting that the costs of lockdown may exceed the costs of COVID-19, by some measure.

A lot depends what we compare lockdown to, and one bugbear of mine is the tendency to dichotomise the question: lockdown or bust. But the real comparison is between lockdown and some other measures, short of lockdown, but nonetheless somewhat effective. The cost/benefit ratio of these intermediate measures may be more favourable then lockdown for Low/Middle Income Countries, even if they are not in High Income Countries.

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